April 18, 2014

10:00 PM | Peirce’s 1870 “Logic Of Relatives” • Comment 10.7
Here is what I get when I analyze Peirce’s “giver of a horse to a lover of a woman” example along the same lines as the dyadic compositions. We may begin with the mark-up shown in Figure 19. (19) If we … Continue reading →
11:30 AM | Big Helping of Friday Potpourri
ICYM them, quite a mishmash of varied links from the past week (something for everyone perhaps): 1) Martin Gardner's more philosophical writings here: http://martin-gardner.org/Philosophy.html 2) Who knew there was so much to know about the arrangement of dice? Tanya Khovanova filled us in on what she learned from John Conway: http://blog.tanyakhovanova.com/?p=489 3) Just in case you've been
1:54 AM | Duality: Confidence intervals and the severity of tests
A question came up in our seminar today about how to understand the duality between a simple one-sided test and a lower limit (LL) of a corresponding 1-sided confidence interval estimate. This is also a good route to SEV (i.e., severity). Here’s a quick answer: Consider our favorite test of the mean of a Normal distribution with […]

April 16, 2014

7:30 PM | Peirce’s 1870 “Logic Of Relatives” • Comment 10.6
As Peirce observes, it is not possible to work with relations in general without eventually abandoning all of one’s algebraic principles, in due time the associative law and maybe even the distributive law, just as we have already given up … Continue reading →
5:14 AM | A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
A Statistical Model as a Chance Mechanism Aris Spanos  Jerzy Neyman (April 16, 1894 – August 5, 1981), was a Polish/American statistician[i] who spent most of his professional career at the University of California, Berkeley. Neyman is best known in statistics for his pioneering contributions in framing the Neyman-Pearson (N-P) optimal theory of hypothesis testing […]

April 15, 2014

9:30 PM | Master of Logical Legerdemain
Logician, Musician, Magician, Mathematician, Candlestick-maker?.... An Overview of "Four Lives: A Celebration of Raymond Smullyan"  edited by Jason Rosenhouse If you're a Raymond Smullyan fan, go get Jason Rosenhouse's new volume, "Four Lives: A Celebration of Raymond Smullyan," NOW! And if you're not familiar with Smullyan, but do enjoy logic, puzzles, and math, the same advice goes. I was

April 14, 2014

2:53 PM | Phil 6334: Notes on Bayesian Inference: Day #11 Slides
  A. Spanos Probability/Statistics Lecture Notes 7: An Introduction to Bayesian Inference (4/10/14) Spanos lecture 7: An Introduction to Bayesian Inference from jemille6 Filed under: Bayesian/frequentist, Phil 6334 class material

April 12, 2014

5:11 PM | “Murder or Coincidence?” Statistical Error in Court: Richard Gill (TEDx video)
“There was a vain and ambitious hospital director. A bad statistician. ..There were good medics and bad medics, good nurses and bad nurses, good cops and bad cops … Apparently, even some people in the Public Prosecution service found the witch hunt deeply disturbing.” This is how Richard Gill, statistician at Leiden University, describes a […]

April 11, 2014

11:30 AM | Week's Additional Links
Some additional links to pass along, that I didn't already mention in blogposts this week:1) just yesterday Sol Lederman linked to this recent Math StackExchange page of "Visually stunning math concepts which are easy to explain" -- that says it all:http://tinyurl.com/pkxjzax(nice examples and variety)2) Long, interesting 1999 piece from Alfie Kohn (pointed out by "Matthew Maddux" this week)
9:24 AM | CfP: Agent-Based Modeling in Philosophy
LMU Munich11-13 December 2014www.lmu.de/abmp2014In the past two decades, agent-based models (ABMs) have become ubiquitous in philosophy and various sciences.  ABMs have been applied, for example, to study the evolution of norms and language, to understand migration patterns of past civilizations, to investigate how population levels change in ecosystems over time, and more.  In contrast with classical economic models or population-level models in biology, ABMs are praised for their […]

April 10, 2014

3:13 PM | More Thoughts on Constructing the World (David Chalmers)
With permission, I'm posting some of David Chalmers' quick thoughts/responses to Panu Raatikainen's critical notice of David's recent aufbauesque (2012) book, Constructing the World (some lectures on this are here on youtube):---------------------(1) Are bridge laws allowed in the scrutability base, and if so does this trivialize scrutability theses? Bridge laws are certainly not disallowed from the base in general (indeed, I'd have psychophysical bridge laws in my own base). When I said that […]

April 09, 2014

1:35 PM | 15th Congress of Logic, Methodology, and Philosophy of Science
CALL FOR PAPERS 15TH CONGRESS OF LOGIC, METHODOLOGY AND PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE (CLMPS 2015)University of Helsinki, Finland, 3-8 August 2015http://www.helsinki.fi/clmpsSUBMISSION DEADLINE: 30 November 2014The Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science (CLMPS) is organized every four years by the Division of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science (DLMPS). The Philosophical Society of Finland, the Academy of Finland Centre of Excellence in […]
3:59 AM | Critical notice of Chalmers, Constructing the World (2012) (by Panu Raatikainen)
David Chalmers recently published an ambitious and fascinating new book, Constructing the World. Oxford University Press, 2012. A critical notice by Panu Raatikainen (University of Helsinki) is here: Raatikainen, P. 2014. "Chalmers Blueprint of the World", International Journal of Philosophical Studies 22 (1):113-128.
2:52 AM | “Out Damned Pseudoscience: Non-significant results are the new ‘Significant’ results!
We were reading “Out, Damned Spot: Can the ‘Macbeth effect’ be replicated?” (Earp,B., Everett,J., Madva,E., and Hamlin,J. (2014) in Basic and Applied Social Psychology 36 (91-8) in an informal gathering of our 6334 seminar yesterday afternoon at Thebes. Some of the graduate students are interested in so-called “experimental” philosophy, and I asked for an example that used statistics […]

April 07, 2014

11:33 AM | Buchak on risk and rationality III: the redescription strategy
This is the third in a series of three posts in which I rehearse what I hope to say at the Author Meets Critics session for Lara Buchak's tremendous new book Risk and Rationality at the Pacific APA in a couple of weeks.  The previous two posts are here and here.  In the first post, I gave an overview of risk-weighted expected utility theory, Buchak's alternative to expected utility theory.  In the second post, I gave a prima facie reason for worrying about any departure from […]
2:39 AM | Phil 6334: Duhem’s Problem, highly probable vs highly probed; Day #9 Slides
  April 3, 2014: We interspersed dicussion with slides; these cover the main readings of the day (check syllabus): the Duhem’s Probem and the Bayesian Way, and “Highly probable vs Highly Probed”. syllabus four. Slides are below. We also did further work on misspecification testing. Monday, April 7, is an optional outing, “a seminar class […]

April 06, 2014

6:30 PM | Peirce’s 1870 “Logic Of Relatives” • Comment 10.5
We have sufficiently covered the application of the comma functor to absolute terms, so let us return to where we were in working our way through CP 3.73 and see whether we can validate Peirce’s statements about the commafications of dyadic … Continue reading →
11:45 AM | Keith Devlin Explains MY Past (maybe)
The debate over what content to teach in math and how to teach it seems to go on forever (as did the first draft of this post!)…. First off, I'll mention that Richard Feynman famously had his own outspoken views on science school textbooks, which he covered in a chapter of one of his books, reprinted here: http://www.textbookleague.org/103feyn.htm It's a long (but entertaining) read so I'd

April 05, 2014

4:53 PM | Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour….
It was from my Virginia Tech colleague I.J. Good (in statistics), who died five years ago (April 5, 2009), at 93, that I learned most of what I call “howlers” on this blog. His favorites were based on the “paradoxes” of stopping rules. (I had posted this last year here.) “In conversation I have emphasized to other statisticians, […]

April 04, 2014

1:50 PM | The Pavel Haas Quartet live, again
One of the delights and frustrations of concert-going is how unpredictable the experience can be. On the frustrating side, the last two outings to hear the usually stellar Academy of Ancient Music were, for different reasons, pretty disappointing. Richard Tognetti’s … Continue reading →
11:00 AM | Linkfest
In case you missed them,  another week's worth of miscellaneous links: 1) First off, April is "Math Awareness" month, and if you weren't already aware of that, then check out these pages: http://www.mathaware.org/index.html http://www.ams.org/samplings/math-awareness-month/mam 2) With April 14th approaching, timely (humor) piece making the rounds last week hypothesizing how the IRS might
12:52 AM | Self-referential blogpost (conditionally accepted*)
This is a blogpost on a talk (by Jeremy Fox) on blogging that will be live tweeted here at Virginia Tech on Monday April 7, and the moment I post this blog on “Blogging as a Mode of Scientific Communication” it will be tweeted. Live. Jeremy’s upcoming talk on blogging will be live-tweeted by @FisheriesBlog, 1 […]

April 03, 2014

10:11 AM | How should we measure accuracy in epistemology? A new result
In recent formal epistemology, a lot of attention has been paid to a programme that one might call accuracy-first epistemology.  It is based on a particular account of the goodness of doxastic states: on this account, a doxastic state -- be it a full belief, a partial belief, or a comparative probability ordering -- is better the greater its accuracy; Alvin Goldman calls this account veritism.  This informal idea is often then made mathematically precise and the resulting formal […]

April 01, 2014

7:26 AM | Skeptical and enthusiastic Bayesian priors for beliefs about asylum renovations: I’m skeptical and unenthusiastic
I had heard of medical designs that employ individuals who supply Bayesian subjective priors that are deemed either “enthusiastic” or “skeptical” as regards the probable value of medical treatments.[i] From what I gather, these priors are combined with data from trials in order to help decide whether to stop trials early or continue. But I’d never heard of […]

March 31, 2014

1:58 AM | Phil 6334: March 26, philosophy of misspecification testing (Day #9 slides)
  “Probability/Statistics Lecture Notes 6: An Introduction to Mis-Specification (M-S) Testing” (Aris Spanos)   [Other slides from Day 9 by guest, John Byrd, can be found here.]Filed under: misspecification testing, Phil 6334 class material, Spanos, Statistics

March 30, 2014

8:00 PM | Annuities, Annuities, #!*&@%#!! Annuities
Just an itty-bitty rant today, tangential to mathematics (though relating to statistics, sample sizes, and the like). It was inspired by reading the below piece on the current "obsession" with "Big Data" (but any number of articles on the "big data" craze probably could've sparked it) : http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/21a6e7d8-b479-11e3-a09a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2xH3TZgd9 The piece focuses a

March 29, 2014

11:32 PM | Winner of the March 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
Winner of the March 2014 Palindrome Contest Caitlin Parker Palindrome:  Able, we’d well aim on. I bet on a note. Binomial? Lewd. Ew, Elba! The requirement was: A palindrome with Elba plus Binomial with an optional second word: bet. A palindrome that uses both Binomial and bet topped an acceptable palindrome that only uses Binomial. Short bio:  Caitlin […]

March 28, 2014

7:04 PM | Severe osteometric probing of skeletal remains: John Byrd
John E. Byrd, Ph.D. D-ABFA Central Identification Laboratory JPAC Guest March 27, PHil 6334 “Statistical Considerations of the Histomorphometric Test Protocol for Determination of Human Origin of Skeletal Remains”  By: John E. Byrd, Ph.D. D-ABFA Maria-Teresa Tersigni-Tarrant, Ph.D. Central Identification Laboratory JPAC Filed under: Phil6334, Philosophy of Statistics
11:15 AM | This Week's Math Potpourri
Another mix of miscellaneous math leftovers from the week: 1) Lots of Common Core stuff going on, starting with this brand new, interesting interview at Mathbabe's blog, with a New York school principal on CC: http://tinyurl.com/m9ow69m 2) When Keith Devlin says something is a "must-read" and "must pass-on," I take it very seriously. Interesting piece, related to math Common Core: http://
10:24 AM | Counting Infinities
(Cross-posted at NewAPPS)In his Two New Sciences (1638), Galileo presents a puzzle about infinite collections of numbers that became known as ‘Galileo’s paradox’. Written in the form of a dialogue, the interlocutors in the text observe that there are many more positive integers than there are perfect squares, but that every positive integer is the root of a given square. And so, there is a one-to-one correspondence between the positive integers and the perfect squares, and thus we may […]
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